The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the flow of vital economic data, leaving family offices without many of the indicators they rely on for investment decisions. With no updates on unemployment, trade, or commodities figures, investors are turning to corporate earnings and alternative data sources to gauge the health of the economy.
The timing is challenging: global trade tensions are mounting, and growth is slowing. For family offices managing substantial capital, the lack of reliable information makes asset allocation and market timing far more complex. Even the Federal Reserve, which trimmed interest rates by a quarter point on Oct. 29, offered little guidance on its next move in December.
According to market observers, sectors such as construction and logistics are already showing reduced activity as investors adopt a “wait-and-see” stance. In place of government data, family offices are tracking private indicators like ADP payrolls, ISM and S&P Global manufacturing reports, and sector-specific metrics on housing or consumer spending. Corporate earnings calls are also serving as a proxy for broader economic sentiment.
To manage uncertainty, many offices are reinforcing diversification across equities, bonds, alternatives, and safe-haven assets. “Those with balanced portfolios are better positioned to ride out the noise and stay focused on long-term goals,” said Frank Scarso of Avanza Capital Holdings.
While the disruption complicates short-term trading strategies, longer-term investors are largely unfazed. “Many family offices take a multi-year view,” noted Rich Bursek of Certuity. “They see this as temporary.”
Historically, shutdowns have had minimal lasting effects on markets. Even the record 35-day closure in 2018 left equity performance largely intact, with the S&P 500 recovering swiftly afterward. Yet some wealth managers caution that today’s more polarised political environment could make this episode different.
